Match Projections for Giornata 21 of Serie A

Below are the match projections for Giornata 21* of Serie A, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins Saturday.

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in this weekend’s Verona-Roma match, there appears to be about a 10% chance of a Verona win, a 72% chance of victory for Roma, and another 18% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

Projected Final Table for Serie A (Current Through Giornata 20)

Below is the projected final table for Serie A current through Giornata 20 of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for Serie A:

Match Projections for Giornata 20 of Serie A

Below are the match projections for Giornata 20* of Serie A, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins Saturday.

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in this weekend’s AC Milan-Verona match, there appears to be about an 76% chance of a Milan victory, a 9% chance of victory for Verona, and another 15% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

Projected Final Table for Serie A (Current Through Giornata 19)

Below is the projected final table for Serie A current through Giornata 19 of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for Serie A:

Match Projections for Giornata 19 of Serie A

Below are the match projections for Giornata 19* of Serie A, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins Saturday.

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in this weekend’s Roma-Genoa match, there appears to be about an 86% chance of a Roma victory, a 3% chance of victory for Genoa, and another 10% chance of a draw — which three figures, it should be noted, add up to only 99% (and not 100%) on account of rounding error.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

Projected Final Table for Serie A (Current Through Giornata 18)

Below is the projected final table for Serie A following Giornata 18 of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for Serie A:

Style Point Ratings for the Weekend’s Forthcoming Serie A Matches

Recently, in these pages, the author introduced a metric called Style Points designed to estimate roughly, on a scale of 0 to 10, the aesthetic appeal of each club currently playing in Europe’s five major leagues.

The exercise is absurd, admittedly, but appears to serve as a reasonable shorthand, at least, for those qualities which do and don’t evoke pleasure within the brain of a spectator. Moreover, an advantage of having produced such a measurement is that it’s also possible to estimate — merely by averaging the Style Point figures of the two relevant clubs — it’s possible to estimate the likely aesthetic appeal of any match occurring within the aforementioned five European leagues.

Doing that precise thing for all of Serie A’s weekend matches yields the following:

Match Projections for Giornata 18 of Serie A

Below are the match projections for Giornata 18* of Serie A, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins tomorrow (Sunday).

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in this week’s Juventus-Roma match, there appears to be about a 48% chance of Juve victory, a 23% chance of victory for Roma, and another 29% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

Projected Final Table for Serie A (Current Through Giornata 17)

Below is the projected final table for Serie A following Giornata 17 of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for Serie A:

Match Projections for Giornata 17 of Serie A

Below are the match projections for Giornata 17 of Serie A, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in this week’s Roma-Catania match, there appears to be about a 85% chance of Roma victory, a 3% chance of victory for tiny Catania, and another 11% chance of a draw — three figures, it should be noted, which add up to only 99% (as opposed to 100%) on account of rounding error.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections: