Below is the projected final table for Serie A following Giornata 17 of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.
The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.
Here’s the updated, projected final table for Serie A:
M: Matches. xGF: Expected goals for. xGA Expected goals against. xGD: Expected goal differential. PTS: Actual points to date. xPTS: Expected points to date, based on model discussed above. Diff: Difference between PTS and xPTS, where a positive number (in green) denotes “good luck”; a negative one (in red), “bad luck.” PROJ38: Projected points at end of season, calculated by adding expected points for remaining matches to present points total.
Some notes:
- With just less than half the schedule having been played, clubs Juventus and Roma, ranked first and second on the actual Serie A table, have also produced the indicators of a first- and second-place club, respectively.
- AC Milan, who’ve produced the indicators of a third-place club, have been conspicuously less fortunate. Following their 0-1 loss at Inter just before the winter break, the Milanese side currently sit at 13th.
- Both Verona and also Genoa have benefited from chance — or, at least, something resembling chance — almost as much as Milan have been afflicted by it. In most recent seasons, a club with Genoa’s indicators would generally be the league’s worst.
All data from Who Scored.
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