Projected Final Table for Serie A (Current Through Giornata 20)

Below is the projected final table for Serie A current through Giornata 20 of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for Serie A:

Match Projections for Giornata 20 of Serie A

Below are the match projections for Giornata 20* of Serie A, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins Saturday.

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in this weekend’s AC Milan-Verona match, there appears to be about an 76% chance of a Milan victory, a 9% chance of victory for Verona, and another 15% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

Projected Final Table for Serie A (Current Through Giornata 17)

Below is the projected final table for Serie A following Giornata 17 of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for Serie A:

Projected Final Table for Serie A (Current Through Giornata 15)

Below is the projected final table for Serie A following the 15th giornata of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for Serie A: