Below are the match projections for Jornada 17 of La Liga, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.
The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.
So, for example, in this week’s Getafe-Barcelona match, there appears to be about only a 5% chance of a Getafe victory, an 82% chance of victory for Barcelona, and another 12% chance of a draw — three figures, it should be noted, which add up to only 99% (as opposed to 100%) on account of rounding error.
Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:
Data from Who Scored.
Paris Matches 